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U.S. resumes military aid to Ukraine after Kyiv agrees to 30-day ceasefire, but Russia holds the cards

By isabelle // 2025-03-12

• The U.S. will resume intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine after Kyiv accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal, contingent on Russia's agreement.
• The ceasefire, covering the entire conflict front line, aims to serve as an interim measure, with potential for extension if both sides agree.
• Russia is unlikely to accept the truce due to its current military advantage, with analysts noting Moscow has little incentive to pause the conflict.
• U.S.-Ukraine relations have improved following a strained period after a contentious meeting between Trump and Zelensky earlier this month.
• The U.S. and Ukraine also agreed to collaborate on developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources to boost its economy and offset U.S. assistance costs.

The United States has agreed to lift its pause on intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine after Kyiv accepted a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire. The breakthrough came following an eight-hour meeting between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday. However, the ceasefire is contingent on Russia’s agreement—a condition that analysts say Moscow is unlikely to accept, given its current military advantage. The move marks a shift in U.S.-Ukraine relations, which had been strained after a contentious Oval Office meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this month. That encounter ended in a heated exchange, with Trump pressing Zelensky to make concessions for peace. While the Ukrainian leader described the meeting as “regrettable,” the latest talks suggest Kyiv is now willing to negotiate, a move that may reflect the influence of Trump’s firm stance. The proposed ceasefire, which would cover the entire front line of the conflict, is intended to serve as an interim measure that could be extended if both sides agree. “Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, we are ready to take such a step, and the United States of America must convince Russia to do so,” Zelensky said in a statement. However, the likelihood of Russia agreeing to the truce remains slim. Moscow currently holds the upper hand militarily, with Russian forces advancing in key regions like Donbas and Kursk. Analysts suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin has little incentive to pause the conflict, as it could allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm with renewed U.S. support. “The ball is now in Russia’s court,” said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who led the American delegation in Jeddah. “We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table, Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking, and now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no.”

A shift in U.S.-Ukraine relations

The resumption of U.S. military aid comes after a brief pause following the Trump-Zelensky confrontation. The U.S. had halted shipments of weapons and intelligence assistance, a move that left Kyiv reeling. The latest agreement signals a thaw in relations, with both sides emphasizing the importance of cooperation. In addition to the ceasefire proposal, the U.S. and Ukraine agreed to work toward a deal to develop Ukraine’s critical mineral resources, a move aimed at bolstering the country’s economy and offsetting the cost of American assistance. “Both countries’ presidents agreed to conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources to expand Ukraine’s economy, offset the cost of American assistance, and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security,” the joint statement read. Despite the optimism from Kyiv and Washington, Moscow has shown little interest in the proposal. Hours before the Jeddah talks, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Russian territory to date, targeting Moscow and killing at least three people. The attack, which Russia described as “massive,” underscores the ongoing volatility of the conflict. Russian officials have dismissed the ceasefire proposal as a bilateral matter between the U.S. and Ukraine, with no direct involvement from Moscow. While the ceasefire proposal is a step toward peace, its success hinges on Russia’s willingness to cooperate—a prospect that seems unlikely given the current dynamics. Still, the fact that Ukraine is willing to negotiate and the U.S. is re-engaging with Kyiv are positive signs. For now, the focus remains on whether Russia will reciprocate. As Rubio noted, “This is not some episode of a television show, this is very serious. Today people will die in this war. They died yesterday, and sadly, unless there’s a ceasefire tonight, they’ll die tomorrow.” The hope is that this proposal could pave the way for a lasting resolution, sparing further loss of life and reducing the financial burden on American taxpayers. But with Russia holding most of the cards, the path to peace remains uncertain. Sources for this article include: ZeroHedge.com CNN.com Telegraph.co.uk

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